Archive for the ‘Patterns’ Category

The Effects of “Always-On” Experience and Aggresiveness

Tuesday, August 28th, 2007

In this age of fast-paced lifestyle and too much dependence on digital gadgets, people have zero or little tolerance to downtimes, long queues, long waits at the customer help line and the like. The always-on experience brought about by the emergence of the internet and cellular technologies demands that we have a ready access to everything. We want our DSL or cable internet to be fast enough 24×7. We want our BlackBerrys to forward all those all-important emails. We want our coffee and lunch instant. We want it fast and we want it instantly. If we could skip lunch without ill effects to our health, there’s no doubt you would because there’s simply no time.

Which brings us to our rather turbo-charged reactions when we are dealing with other people. For example, when you’re on a phone and calling the tech support, how many times have you been yelling at the customer support representative? Or when you are accessing some website and became deeply frustrated when the page hurled a 404 message (or in other words, the site is down)? Or when you are checking your BlackBerry or cellphone under the table while dining? Or when there’s no cellphone signal because you’re on a deadspot? Or when a hurricane or a very strong typhoon hit your city or town? The mere occurrence of blackouts cause mental anguish on your head.

Downtimes, whether system-related or caused by nature, are inevitable occurrences. With nature, the best you can do is preparation. For everything else, it’s communications, plain and simple. You have every right to vent out your frustration and shout all you want, but do understand that simply shouting doesn’t make your message loud and clear. You have to address it to proper authorities or to the proper person. When you address it the second time around and nothing has changed, it’s time to address it with a louder voice. You need to address it with other voices from the community. If everything else fails, you haven’t done enough to address the problem or the other party is not doing their job.

Either way, your voice should be heard loud and clear, but in a civil and polite way.

In a world of instant email and instant hate mail, instant news and instant public outrage, instant action and instant reaction, the world knows what you are feeling. Communication is the key, and transparency along with respect between the two parties will settle the differences.

What’s the Next Killer App?

Thursday, August 23rd, 2007

By killer apps, I mean technology products or services that have been in use by at least, a million people in the internet and mobile space. So while karaokes, videokes, franchising and the like have been extremely popular as well among businesses and consumers alike, killer apps in this listing are only restricted to those products and services that are being produced, distributed and consumed through electronic means such as the web and cellphones and/or the combination of both.

Here is the listing:

Communications

  • Email
  • Text Messaging
  • Instant Messaging
  • VoIP

Internet

  • Search Engines
  • Web browsers

Expression

  • Blogging (Wordpress)
  • Podcasting (Apple iTunes)
  • Social Network Apps (MySpace, Facebook)

Commerce

  • Ecommerce (Amazon, eBay)
  • mCommerce (GCash, Smart Money, Micropayments)
  • Online/mobile banking (Bank of America)

Entertainment

  • Video/online/mobile games
  • Music downloads

Speaking of killer apps, here are some interesting links:

 

In the spirit of entrepreneurship or simply to stir your mind in case you are thinking what’s the next killer app, it is interesting to note what Thomas Friedman has put in his book "The World is Flat" that in order to survive in this competitive world, we need not look further to re-invent the wheel of business processes. Once you have identified a market niche or see a demand for something that is not immediately obvious or introduce value-added services to what are now plain, commoditized digital services, you might just stumble upon a good opportunity. Or you might be the next YouTube of tomorrow.

What Ninoy Aquino and Jose Rizal Share in Common

Monday, August 20th, 2007

We do not choose our heroes during the hard times. They are heroes in the making during their days because of their predisposition, their passion and principles. Their intellectual prowess combined with their eloquent exposition for reforms in the government prompted them to rise above their personal lives and seek what is just for the nation.

Both came from well-to-do families but they did not settle for material wealth and just live a normal, peaceful life. Instead, what they see as inequities in government prompted them to seek non-violence as a means of carrying out reforms. Rizal merely asked for just representation in Spain where the Philippines ought to be a province of Spain, and thus enjoy the benefits, rights and governance accorded to provinces just like in Europe’s Spain. Aquino, on the other hand, urged Marcos to put an end to martial law and bring back democracy to the country.

Both Rizal and Aquino knew that to dismantle the tyranny of their times, they need to rally the Filipinos’ support and continue until the end. Rizal opened the eyes of the Filipinos during his time through his writings. Aquino, after his recovery in the US, continued to hurl fiery speeches against the Marcos dictatorship.

During his correspondence in 1891 with Ferdinand Blumentritt while Rizal was in Europe writing his El Filibusterismo novel, Rizal was already pondering upon his second return to the Philippines, and preparing for his death (so to speak):

From Harry Sichrovsky’s work:

I must return to the Philippines, life will be a burden to me. I must give the example of not fearing death even if it is frightful … " Rizal intimates that one of his followers (in the Philippines) allegedly complained about those who agitate in safety in a foreign country while the fighters at home are in constant danger. At thirty, Rizal is an old battle-weary man who - with a suspicious foreboding at least in those days and weeks before his final home-coming - has reconciled himself with his destiny: "I shall meet my fate; if I die, then you shall remain. But life in Europe is impossible for me. Dying is better than living miserably…

History took its course. Rizal’s family were banished from Calamba and eventually, made it to Hong Kong. Rizal did not waste time seeing his family. From the same Sichrovksy’s site, Rizal wrote:

"All of us, my parents, sisters and brothers, are living peacefully together here, far from the persecutions which they suffered in the Philippines." He writes that his parents are very contented with the English government (in Hong Kong), that they want to die there and no longer want to return to the Philippines where life is unbearable.

For all that, Rizal can find no peace. He thinks of the settlers in his hometown of Calamba who are oppressed and driven away. Again and again, he talks of those who are persecuted because they read his books, are acquainted with him, or correspond with him. He feels responsible for their sufferings, he feels guilty for living safely in a foreign country. And despite all warnings, Rizal decides to return home. His family is horrified.

The hero in Rizal was already morphing. He feels to continue his mission now that his family is already secure from the Spanish tyranny, and set foot in the Philippines where the action really is. The account continues:

Rizal disembarks in Manila on June 26, 1892 after leaving behind two letters, again with some foreboding - one to his family and friends, the other one to the Philippine nation - both of which should be opened after his death. In this letter to his family and friends, he asks his family for forgiveness for the sorrows he has caused them. It seems to emerge plainly from the second letter that Rizal, not without pride and satisfaction, seems to have resolved, if necessary, to set a signal for patriotism and liberation through his martyr’s death.

To make a long story short, Rizal established La Liga Filipina in hopes that

the league was to be a sort of mutual aid and self-help society dispensing scholarship funds and legal aid, loaning capital and setting up cooperatives. These were innocent, even naive objectives that could hardly alleviate the social ills of those times, but the Spanish authorities were so alarmed that they arrested Rizal on July 6, 1892, a scant four days after the Liga was organized. [Source: click here]

Rizal’s founding of the La Liga Filipina along with writing of his two novels led to his deportation in Dapitan, not because of the "nascent rebellion" as you would see in Wikipedia and the various websites that quoted it. During Rizal’s 4 peaceful years in exile, Bonifacio and his Katipunan were cooking up an uprising all along. After Bonifacio failed to get Rizal’s nod on launching a fullscale attack against Spain which Rizal thought was premature, the Cry of Balintawak ensued in 1896 signalling the start of the Philippine Revolution. Rizal was implicated and was eventually shot, and the true revolution was unleashed.

The same was true with Ninoy Aquino.

While Rizal was in Hong Kong despairing for the cruel indignities being suffered by his countrymen, Aquino, on the other hand, after his recovery from heart attack in the US and while 3 years in self-exile felt the same (Source: Answers.com)

In the first quarter of 1983, Aquino was receiving news about the deteriorating political situation in his country.

When Rizal decided to return to the Philippines, so is Aquino. The account continues:

Aquino decided to go back to the Philippines, fully aware of the dangers that awaited him. Warned that he will either be imprisoned or killed, he answered, "if it’s my fate to die by an assassin’s bullet, so be it".

To make a long story short, Aquino left the US and was shot on August 21, 1983 while being escorted off the plane. People Power Revolution ensued and brought down Marcos dictatorship. Democracy was finally restored. The rest, as they say, is history.

This article is posted in memory of our heroes’ exemplary example that while they laid down their life for a greater cause, we too can be a hero in our own little way, everyday of our life.

Dotcom/Housing Bubble and Collective Greed

Thursday, August 16th, 2007

Pardon for the word "greed" which has a negative connotation but for which, I simply mean "human desire for capital gains" as far as this article is concerned. "Collective greed" in this context refers to the collective desires of the American people with regards to the bubble phenomenon that has occurred (dotcom bubble) and is occurring right now (housing bubble).

The following events are common with respect to these bubbles:

  1. Stock prices rise (in housing bubble, housing prices rise)
  2. Stock prices continue to rise until it reached its peak (same with housing prices)
  3. Stock prices decline or evaporate (housing prices, on the other hand, simply decline)

David Lereah, on the same Freakonomics article, wrote from an economic perspective:

Bubble is the wrong imagery for today’s housing markets. Bubbles inevitably “pop.” A more useful image for the housing markets is a balloon. Balloons expand and deflate. It is clear that air has come out of a number of local balloons across the nation, particularly in California, Nevada, Arizona, Florida and some selected metropolitan areas in the Midwest and Northeast regions. From a home sales perspective, the magnitude of today’s real estate downturn is not meaningfully different from our two most recent real estate downturns — 1990/91 and 1980/81. For example, the 80/81 recession resulted in a 48% drop in existing home sales. Existing homes sales have dropped by less than 20% so far in the 2006/07 downturn. However, unlike real estate recessions in the past, today’s downturn offers two unfortunate residuals — a drop in home prices for the nation as a whole, and a serious run-up in foreclosures.

Amir Korangy added:

Let’s talk about what a bubble is. A bubble exists when the ratio of median existing home prices is about 6 or 7 times greater than per capita income. If you compare the census with prices in New York, they seem reasonable. Bubbles have certainly existed in particular regions, and prices in those areas could be brought down by a range of factors. In 2005, when the entire country was experiencing tremendous real estate growth, prices in Canton, Ohio dropped continually. Drops like that contradict market fundamentals, increasing speculation and participation in the market by people who normally don’t get involved in such things…

I’ll leave the nitty-gritty to the economists. But for the sake of simplicity, these are the results of the bubbles we are talking about:

For the dotcom bubble,

  1. dotcom stock prices either declined or simply evaporated. Why? Because the internet is still in its infancy, says Answers.com. The dotcom entrepreneurs are figuratively pouring money on a shaky foundation. Ecommerce and web standards have not matured yet.
  2. dotcom companies either perished or are still thriving. Those companies with ludicrous product/service offerings simply were not able to deliver or inevitably doomed to failure. As a result, they went into bankruptcy. On the other hand, those dotcom companies with economic fundamentals intact (like eBay, PayPal, Amazon etc) survive the dotcom craze and are still thriving.
  3. dotcom stock corrections or awakening to true valuations of dotcom stock prices.

For the housing bubble,

  1. Housing prices expand and deflate (I like David Lereah’s description that it should be called housing balloon, instead of housing bubble)
  2. Housing price corrections. There are a lot of factors involved but generally, we are seeing housing prices that have reached its peak already and are bound to decline until it reach its market-acceptable valuation and stabilize

If you really look into these trends, it is partly caused by  "collective greed". People have a natural tendency for capital gains once they sold their assets (there’s nothing wrong with that) but once they stretched their asset prices to the limit, the market will reach its peak and is bound to correct itself until it reaches its stable point. I’m not saying "collective greed" is the sole cause of the housing crisis that is happening right now. There are a lot of factors including the weakening US dollar, the toll being caused by the unpopular Iraq war, subprime mortgage delinquency, and others, and that is worthy of another discussion.

Whereas the dotcom bubble happened in a certain place only (the Silicon Valley), the housing market is widely distributed across the nation, and with government support, can absorb the impact of losses.

Right now, it looks like Uncle Sam is awakening to its senses, and is exacting order in the house (that is, order in housing prices and family members as well). :-)

What Poverty and Global Warming Share in Common

Tuesday, July 31st, 2007

All signs are pointing to only one direction…up! The peso appreciation, strong interest for local investments, warm reception to government issuance of bonds and treasury bills, the IMF’s praise on the Philippines’ fiscal progress, and so on generates positive energies among the Filipino investors. While the peso’s continuing rise against the US dollar is exacting its toll against the country’s exporters and multinational BPO firms, the country on the other hand is saving billions of pesos on payments of foreign debts. The average Juan may not be interested at all with the statistics. All they care about is getting the basic needs at affordable prices. While the government is doing its best to address poverty (or so it seems), the economic gains we see for now can only be felt at the national level. That is, those gains are spread out on development infrastructure, public roads, public services, etc.

The average Juan should not expect those gains at the per capita level because of a great barrier called poverty. Poverty is so widespread and so great an issue that it needs an extraordinary solution to be addressed. To use a rough analogy, the country can be likened to an airplane whose economic gains can be likened to a little gain in mileage, but inside, the passengers (the average Juan) are cramped like sardines begging for air. Those who are unfortunate gets kicked out of the bumpy ride while the majority are on the tailend of the plane on the verge of falling into the abyss!

While the local surveys show that poor Filipinos do blame the government for their plight, they don’t necessarily depend on the government to alleviate their condition. That’s a good thing. Save for the Marcos dictatorship which every Filipino is vowed to fight against, the best we can do is to work out our share of contributing to production of goods and services.

That’s the big anomaly our country is facing right now. OFWs contribute a great deal of remittances but produces a negative result at the expense of our exporters. The country’s dollar gain is a dollar loss (or a fraction thereof) for our exporters or any affected industries for that matter. The OFW services that should have been produced locally are being harvested instead overseas. Goods and services must be generated locally so the wealth likewise is being enjoyed locally.

So what are we going to do? If you are an employee, give the best out of every peso being paid to you. If you are unemployed, why not consider starting a business? If you are not employed or if you are not into business, just do something positive. Do something that will bring out the best in you. You will become what your mind sets into. Don’t let the dark cloud of pessimism shroud your enthusiasm and passion for life. 

We must do something that will contribute to production of goods and services that will benefit our country.

Hey, we’ve been through the Renaissance, the Industrial Revolution, the Space Age, and right now the Information Age. Why is it that the poor Filipinos’ mentality still lounges in the Dark Ages?

So where does this post leads to? Regardless if the economy is going up or down, it’s not right to blame others or the economy. Instead of blaming, why not just pick up the pieces you have left on the floor and move on. Poverty as complex an issue as global warming needs to be addressed by each and everyone of us now and into the future, day in, day out. Everyday. Because, if we just idle and do nothing, poverty level piles up much as carbon emissions do everyday.