The US government is scrambling to make sense how in the world did the current subprime crisis emerge, and more importantly, what actions to take to stave off the looming recession. NYTimes has an excellent article that points to the "shadow banking system" as the culprit or maybe, as one of the major causes of the current crisis. Bill Gross explained it already last year at CNNMoney saying that the US has a secret banking system built on derivatives and untouched by regulation. Paul Krugman adds:
As the years went by, the shadow banking system took over more and more of the banking business, because the unregulated players in this system seemed to offer better deals than conventional banks. Meanwhile, those who worried about the fact that this brave new world of finance lacked a safety net were dismissed as hopelessly old-fashioned.
In fact, however, we were partying like it was 1929 — and now it’s 1930.
The financial crisis currently under way is basically an updated version of the wave of bank runs that swept the nation three generations ago. People aren’t pulling cash out of banks to put it in their mattresses — but they’re doing the modern equivalent, pulling their money out of the shadow banking system and putting it into Treasury bills. And the result, now as then, is a vicious circle of financial contraction.
Aside from derivatives, the Feds are looking into credit default swaps (CDS). A bank analyst at Oppenheimer said that the Feds’ bailout of Bear Stearns was 100 percent related to credit default swaps. Analysts estimate that Bear Stearns carry CDS contracts with outstanding value of $2.5 trillion.
Lawmakers are now coming up with suggestions like requiring investment banks to disclose off-balance-sheet risks while also making the firms subject to audits — much like commercial banks are now. Also, investment banks must set aside reserves for potential losses to provide a greater cushion during financial panics.
THERE is an emerging consensus that the ability of mortgage lenders to package their loans as securities that were then sold off to other parties played a key role in allowing borrowing standards to plummet.
Ratings agencies have similarly been under fire ever since the credit crisis began to unfold, and new regulations may force them to distance themselves from the investment banks whose products they were paid to rate.
In the meantime, analysts say, a broader reconsideration of derivatives and the shadow banking system is also in order. “Not all innovation is good,” says Mr. Whalen of Institutional Risk Analytics. “If it is too complicated for most of us to understand in 10 to 15 minutes, then we probably shouldn’t be doing it.”